Climatic displacement exacerbates the negative impact of drought on plant performance and associated arthropod abundance

Climate change is acting on species and modifying communities and ecosystems through changes not only with respect to mean abiotic conditions, but also through increases in the frequency and severity of extreme events. Changes in mean aridity associated with climate change can generate ecotype by environment mismatch (i.e., climatic displacement). At the same time, variability around these shifting means is predicted to increase, resulting in more extreme droughts. We characterized the effects of two axes of climate change, climatic displacement and drought, on the shrub Artemisia californica and its arthropods. We established common gardens of plants sourced along an aridity gradient (3.5-fold variation in mean annual precipitation) in an arid region of the species distribution, thus generating a gradient of climatic displacement (sustained increase in aridity) as predicted with climate change. We surveyed plants and arthropods over eight years where precipitation varied sixfold, including both extreme drought and relatively mesic conditions. These two axes of climate change interacted to influence plant performance, such that climatically displaced populations grew slowly regardless of drought and suffered substantial mortality during drought years. Conversely, local populations grew quickly, increased growth during wet years, and had low mortality regardless of drought. Effects on plant annual arthropod yield were negative and additive, with drought effects exceeding that of climatic displacement by 24%. However, for plant lifetime arthropod yield, incorporating effects on both plant growth and survival, climatic displacement exacerbated the negative effects of drought. Collectively these results demonstrate how climatic displacement (through increasing aridity stress) strengthens the negative effects of drought on plants and, indirectly, on arthropods, suggesting the possibility of climate-mediated trophic collapse.