Comparative modelling of two migratory locusts along the China–Kazakhstan border under climate change: Poleward habitat shifts and increasing transboundary risk

Background Migratory locusts threaten grassland productivity and transboundary biosecurity in arid Central Asia, but climate‐driven changes in suitable habitats remain unclear. This study quantified the historical and future habitat suitability of Calliptamus italicus and Locusta migratoria migratoria in the China–Kazakhstan border region, identified key environmental factors linked to critical developmental periods, and analysed habitat shifts and centroid migration under future climate scenarios. Results Model performance was high for both species (mean area under the curve/true skill statistic (AUC/TSS): 0.964/0.854 for C. italicus and 0.967/0.823 for L. migratoria migratoria ). For C. italicus , eclosion‐period wind speed and overwintering relative humidity were the main historical drivers, whereas future suitability was driven mainly by overwintering relative humidity and slope. Low‐suitability habitat declined from 206 900 to 139 400 km 2 during 2000–2020, while future expansion was concentrated in Almaty, Ulytau, Tacheng, and Ili, with moderate‐suitability area increasing by up to 522 000 km 2 . For L. migratoria migratoria , eclosion‐period normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was the main historical factor, whereas future suitability was driven mainly by wind and precipitation. Its habitat showed a stable‐core‐expanding‐edge pattern, extending into east Kazakhstan, Abai, and Altay, with moderate‐ and high‐suitability areas increasing by up to 469 900 and 128 700 km 2 . Habitat centroids shifted mainly northeastward for C. italicus and northwestward for L. migratoria migratoria . Conclusion Climate change is likely to intensify habitat redistribution and transboundary invasion risk for both locusts. Integrating developmental‐period environmental controls with dynamic habitat‐shift analysis improves risk assessment and supports earlier warning, cross‐border monitoring, and coordinated locust management. © 2026 Society of Chemical Industry.