Value-chain optimization enhances economic resilience and profits with moderate carbon footprint increase: Qiongzhong-Lvcheng orange case

The green energy and low-carbon transformation of the agricultural industry urgently needs a holistic solution covering the whole industrial chain. However, it is crucial to break the bottlenecks such as inconsistent accounting boundaries, unclear driving mechanisms, and unclear emission reduction paths. This study takes a Chinese geographical indication agricultural product as a case, explores the carbon footprint of the entire industrial chain, and simulates the stability of the industrial structure under different scenarios. Results show that: (1) Fertilizer and pesticide contribute the most to the carbon footprint of the planting stage. The main source of carbon footprints for bulk fruit, graded fruit, and not-from-concentrate (NFC) juice is the planting stage; that of concentrated juice, green orange wine, and green orange vinegar is mainly from the deep processing or packaging stage. (2) The carbon footprint of the entire industrial chain is reasonable, but the industry has a weak capacity for sustainable development. The carbon footprint would be controlled to an increase of 7.9% under the low-carbon development scenario, which can improve the industrial structure and economic profits significantly. This study can provide decision support for the low-carbon and sustainable development of the agricultural industry, contributing to emission reduction.