Predicting potential suitable areas of Orchidaceae plants with national key reserve from Heilongjiang province in MaxEnt models

The study aimed at predicting potential suitable areas with national key reserve Orchidaceae plants in Heilongjiang province and conducive to plant protection. The distribution point data of six Orchidaceae plants and 19 bioclimatic variables were selected, and the environmental factors required for modeling were screened out by pearson correlation analysis and variance inflation factor (VIF) analysis. The potential suitable areas of Orchidaceae plants were predictat present and under different climate scenarios in 2090s by using geographic information system (GIS) and Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt). And then evaluated the prediction accuracy of the MaxEnt model using the AUC value, the TSS value and the Kappa value. The results showed that: 1) The area under curve (AUC) values, true skill statistics (TSS) values and KAPPA values predicted by MaxEnt model were separately above 0.9, 0.85 and 0.75. 2) Under the climate scenario at present, the total suitable area of Orchidaceae plants was about 9.61 × 10 6 km 2 , which was mainly distributed in Heilongjiang province. Among them, the high-suitable area of Cypripedium shanxiense S. C. Chen was the largest, the non-suitable area of Cypripedium guttatum Sw was the largest. 3) Under different climate scenarios in 2090s, the total suitable area was slightly increasing (9.62 × 10 6 km 2 ). Among them, Cypripedium shanxiense S. C. Chen and Gastrodiae Rhizoma both showed the trend of expansion to the southwest, China, and the suitable areas expanded significantly. Comprehensive factor analysis showed that temperature and precipitation were the main bioclimatic variables of suitable areas distribution, and the low emission scenario (SSP 2–4.5) will be more conducive to the survival of Orchidaceae plants.