Spatiotemporal differentiation and mechanism of anthropogenic factors affecting ecosystem service value in the Urban Agglomeration around Poyang Lake, China

Clarifying the impact of anthropogenic factors on ecosystem service value (ESV) is crucial to achieving sustainable development. However, the dynamics of human-disturbed complex ESVs vary from region to region, and the specific mechanism of this remains unclear, confusing land use planning. Therefore, this study focuses on the Urban Agglomeration around Poyang Lake in a typical area of China, uses the improved equivalent factor to analyze ESV estimation and spatial–temporal change, and employs Geographically Weighted Regression model and Geographical Detectors to explore the regional differences and impact mechanisms of anthropogenic factors on ESV. The results indicate that ESV in the study area has increased from 2000 to 2020, with a slowed-down growth rate. Spatially, ESV shows a decreasing trend from the core area to the periphery area as the distance from the lake increases. Further analysis reveals significant spatial heterogeneity in the impact of anthropogenic factors on ESV, with more potent interaction effects than single effects. Specifically, there is a strong interaction between urban development factors and industrial/agricultural factors. Furthermore, the anthropogenic-driven forces affecting ESV become increasingly complex from the core area to the peripheral area. These findings provide valuable insights into the distribution, dynamics, and mechanisms of ESV.