Dynamic local and tele-coupling of ecosystem services supply and demand: Implications for sustainable management zoning in a plateau urban agglomeration

Rapid urbanization intensifies ecosystem services (ES) supply-demand mismatches. However, traditional local static assessments fail to capture cross-regional flows and dynamic evolutionary trajectories. Focusing on the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration (CYUA), we constructed a “conceptualization-process-pattern-mechanism-management” research framework, integrating multi-source data (2003−2023) with a dynamic local and tele-coupling coordination degree (DLTCCD) model and spatial econometric models to evaluate ES spatiotemporal convergence, and employing the XGBoost-SHAP approach to reveal nonlinear driving mechanisms. Ultimately, we proposed a static-dynamic integrated management zoning strategy. The results indicate: (1) CYUA exhibited significant “local collapse and tele-coupling compensation” characteristics; remote spatial subsidies from peripheral areas effectively repaired global coordination despite local decoupling in polarized cores; (2) Despite an absolute β -convergence, extremely slow convergence rates forewarn of persistent long-term spatial disequilibrium; (3) The dominant driving logic transitioned from early natural constraints to nature-infrastructure-policy synergies; (4) Integrating static baselines with dynamic trajectories delineated six sustainable management zones. These findings provide quantitative evidence for local and tele-coupling mechanisms, offering a transferable reference and potential governance framework for complex plateau urban agglomerations.