Risk contagion and resilience analysis of China’s energy industry chain under fossil energy output shocks—Based on network dynamics analysis

This study builds a cascade failure model for risk propagation during supply disruptions, incorporates inter-industry input–output relationships, and evaluates the network resilience of China’s energy industry chain over time using production shocks from coal, crude oil, and natural gas as risk sources. The study concludes that (1) the key nodes of the coal, crude oil, and natural gas industry chain are the oil refining and coal-to-oil, thermal power generation, gas production, and heating industries; (2) disruptions in energy supply have varying effects on the output of each node, with coal affecting thermal power generation and heat supply, crude oil influences the output of the refining and coal-to-oil industry, and natural gas mainly affects the liquefaction and heat supply industries; (3) China’s energy industry chain is more resilient to the effects of natural gas production than it is to the effects of crude oil production. In order to fully improve the overall resilience of the industry chain, it is advised to apply differentiated energy risk prevention and control measures, strengthen the monitoring and reserve system for crucial nodes, and execute guarantee techniques.