The potential impact of increased whole grain consumption among Chinese adults on reducing healthcare costs and carbon footprint

Currently, the excessive consumption of refined grains endangers human health and the viability of the ecosystem. Whole grains, as a healthy and sustainable alternative to refined grains, can benefit both individual health by providing dietary fiber, B vitamins, and bioactive substances, and the environment due to their higher extraction rate and lower carbon emission during the processing stage. However, few studies have attempted to evaluate the economic and social benefits of increasing the amount of whole grain in grain intake. This paper estimates the potential savings in healthcare costs and reduction in food carbon footprints (CFs) that could result from a shift toward whole grain consumption in accordance with the Chinese Dietary Guidelines (CDG). If a certain proportion (from 5% to 100%) of Chinese adults could increase their whole grain intakes as proposed by CDG (to meet the average shortfall of 30.2 g), the healthcare costs for associated diseases, including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD), and colorectal cancer (CRC) are expected to reduce by a substantial amount, from USD 2.82 billion to USD 56.37 billion, and the carbon emission levels are also projected to decrease by 0.24 to 5.72 million tons. Estimates from this study provide compelling evidence that advocating for the transition towards greater consumption of whole grain products could benefit individual health, the environment, and society, by reducing both healthcare costs and carbon emissions.