Mapping human- and bear-centered perspectives on coexistence using a participatory Bayesian framework

Coexistence with wildlife is becoming a key challenge in Europe as populations of large carnivores recover in human-dominated landscapes. Modeling the spatial distribution of conditions for human-bear coexistence can help support conservation by identifying priority areas and measures to support coexistence, but existing models often only address risks either to humans or to large carnivores. In this study, we developed a participatory modeling process that incorporates both human-centered and large carnivore-centered perspectives on coexistence and applied it to a case study of coexistence between humans and the endangered Apennine brown bears (Ursus arctos marsicanus) in Italy. Local and expert knowledge, as well as available data on bear habitats and land use, were integrated into a spatially explicit Bayesian network. This model is used to predict and map the tolerance to bears from the human perspective and the risk of fitness loss from the bear perspective. We found that conditions for human-bear coexistence vary between human communities and are spatially heterogeneous at the local scale, depending on ecological factors, social factors influencing the level of tolerance in community, such as people’s emotions and knowledge, economic factors, such as livelihoods, and policies such as damage compensation. The participatory modeling approach allowed us to integrate perceptions of local people, expert assessments, and spatial data, and can help bridge the gap between science and conservation practice. The resulting coexistence maps can inform conservation decisions, and can be updated as new information becomes available. Our modeling approach could help to efficiently target measures for improving human-large carnivore coexistence in different settings in a site-specific manner.