Mitigating the bullwhip effect: the role of ESG performance in Chinese enterprises

Supply chain resilience is vital to the long-term operation of enterprises. With the concept of sustainable development becoming deeply ingrained globally, enterprises are actively implementing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices. Based on panel data of China’s A-share listed firms spanning 2010 to 2023 and ESG rating datasets sourced from Sino-Securities, this paper systematically investigates the associations, configurational mechanisms, and heterogeneous boundary conditions linking corporate ESG performance to a firm-level bullwhip-effect proxy. Baseline empirical results reveal that higher-quality ESG performance is associated with a significant reduction in the bullwhip-effect proxy. To move beyond the restrictive net-effect paradigm of traditional regression frameworks, this study adopts fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to unpack complex multi-factor configurational pathways. We select firm-level conditional antecedents and explore their joint combinatorial effects with ESG engagement in curbing the amplification of demand volatility along supply chains. It further identifies six equifinal configurational paths, including ESG compensation-oriented, operational agility-oriented, non-ESG internal governance-dominated, state ownership-backed, and stability-driven configurations. These distinct combinations suggest that enterprises can pursue supply chain stability via differentiated governance portfolios, thereby highlighting multiple equifinal strategies to foster supply chain resilience under heterogeneous institutional and operational environments. Collectively, the empirical evidence suggests that ESG strengths can be converted into operational resilience dividends, delivering theoretical implications for sustainable supply chain management research within emerging market contexts.