Green growth of agriculture: the impact of carbon emissions on agricultural employment in China

This study employs a two-way fixed effects panel regression model and utilizes data from 171 prefecture-level cities in China during the period 2003–2019 to systematically examine the impact of carbon emissions on agricultural employment and its underlying mechanisms, highlighting the critical role of low-carbon transition. The findings reveal that carbon emissions significantly suppress agricultural employment through three channels: aggravating extreme droughts that undermine agricultural production; promoting non-agricultural sector expansion that accelerates labour outflow; and discouraging the entry and reducing the output of agri-related enterprises. In the long run, a U-shaped relationship exists between carbon emissions and agricultural employment, where suppression dominates in the early stage, while the emergence of green agriculture in later stages may generate new job opportunities. Micro-level survey data further confirm the adverse effects of carbon emissions on occupational transition and income of agricultural workers. At the macro level, policy coordination is required to reconcile low-carbon development with agricultural employment security, through talent subsidies, promotion of low-carbon technologies, support for agri-business entities, and regionally differentiated strategies.