The fertility desires–intentions gap in the United States

Indicators of fertility goals are crucial demographic tools, but the availability of different constructs and misleading language in empirical research are a source of confusion, with fertility desires and intentions often used interchangeably. Fertility desires reflect an intrinsic wish to have children, whereas fertility intentions reflect an actual plan. I operationalize the fertility desires–intentions gap by considering that individuals might: (1) desire and intend; (2) desire but not intend; (3) not desire but intend; or (4) not desire or intend to have (more) children. Using nationally representative data for the United States and drawing from a life-course and gender perspective, I estimate aggregate-level, age-specific, and parity-specific indicators for both men and women and use regression models to identify predictors of the fertility desires–intentions gap. These analyses clarify the confusion generated by different measures, provide insights in light of the recent fertility decline, and reveal the consequences of considering (or not) sterility status in measures of fertility goals.