Tourist demand and destination development under climate change: complexities and perspectives

Climate change is becoming increasingly impactful on global tourism, including climate patterns and weather extremes, degraded and lost assets (snow, water, biodiversity, beach), business disruption and damage, rises in travel and hospitality cost, as well as deteriorating socio-economic stability. Based on a narrative review of the literature, the paper develops a series of conceptualizations that represent the complexities and implications for tourist demand. Findings confirm that while tourists have diverse options to adapt to climate change - including spatial substitution, temporal shifts, and activity modification - the rising cost of tourism due to climate change is likely to be the primary driver of tourist demand responses in the immediate future. There is a considerable risk that severe disruptions in the tourism system will occur within the next two decades unless mitigation efforts are significantly scaled up, with salient impacts on destination competitiveness and tourism demand. Important research gaps persist, specifically in relation to the implications of cost changes and compounding impacts, which inhibit robust projections of future tourism losses and gains at the destination scale.