“More visitors, less spending”? The impact of consumer confidence index on domestic tourism growth: evidence from China

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), as a forward-looking indicator reflecting macroeconomic expectations and consumption intentions, is likely to exert systematic effects on both the supply and demand sides of the tourism market. This study innovatively reveals the dual mechanisms – linear and threshold effects – by which the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dynamically influences domestic tourism. Using spatial statistics and Granger causality tests on 298 Chinese cities (2013–2023), we first identify spatial clustering patterns in tourism and bidirectional causality between CCI and tourism indicators. Moreover, the results indicate that the impact of CCI on domestic tourism revenue is higher than that on domestic tourist arrivals, and a significant threshold effect exists. The study concludes that enhancing consumer confidence is a crucial approach to promoting the high-quality development of domestic tourism. Practically, we recommend adaptive tourism strategies that leverage CCI thresholds to optimize consumption stimulation and sustainable industry development.