A Study on the Impact of RCEP Rules of Origin on Industrial Relocation in China’s Manufacturing Sector

Against the backdrop of China-US trade frictions and the entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), this paper empirically examines the impact of relaxed Rules of Origin (ROO) restrictiveness under the RCEP framework on the industrial transfer of China’s manufacturing sector to other member states within the region. Drawing on data from the ADB-MRIO and free trade agreement texts covering the period 2018–2023, this paper constructs a two-way fixed effects model for empirical testing and arrives at the following findings: a reduction in the ROO restrictiveness index is significantly and positively associated with the industrial transfer of China’s manufacturing sector at the 1% statistical level, a conclusion that remains valid following a series of robustness tests; this effect exhibits notable heterogeneity, as the positive association between relaxed ROO restrictiveness and industrial transfer is significantly positive at the 1% statistical level only in intermediate-input-driven and capital-intensive sectors, while showing no significant effect on consumption-market-driven, labor-intensive, and technology-intensive sectors; mechanism analysis further reveals that a higher degree of openness in host countries and stronger trade complementarity between host countries and China amplify the positive association between ROO restrictiveness reduction and manufacturing industrial transfer. This study provides industry-level empirical evidence for understanding how regional trade agreements reshape Asia-Pacific production networks through Rules of Origin and offers policy implications for China to optimize its regional industrial layout and move toward the mid-to-high end of the global value chain.