Does digital village development increase rural residents’ income? Causal inference based on double machine learning

Employing the double machine learning approach within a quasi-natural experiment based on China’s ‘National Digital Village Pilot’ policy, this study investigates the effect of digital village development on rural residents’ income. The findings reveal a statistically significant positive impact of digital village development on rural residents’ income, with a more pronounced effect observed in relatively less developed counties, specifically including provincial border counties, poverty-stricken counties, and non-city counties. The key mechanisms include stimulating entrepreneurship, advancing digital finance, and enhancing factor inflows. This study contributes to the existing literature on digital village development and rural residents’ income, offering a policy rationale for fostering income growth in rural areas.