Institutional unlocking and nonlinear leaps: the phased characteristics of agricultural total factor productivity in China

Using China’s annual agricultural data (1949–2024), this study applies the GSADF test to identify nonlinear leaps in agricultural TFP and bootstrap rolling-window causality tests to examine its relationship with institutional reforms. The results show two productivity leaps in 1985 and 1988–1996, corresponding to the Household Responsibility System and township enterprises, confirming that institutional reforms drive productivity leaps. This provides empirical evidence on institutional drivers of China’s agricultural transformation and insights for developing countries pursuing agricultural development through institutional innovation.