Responding to Environmental Uncertainties in Critical Supply Acquisition: An Examination of Contracting for Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) in the Aftermath of COVID-19

While prior research has long identified the centrality of critical supply acquisition to the government’s response to a crisis, there is less understanding of how to secure critical supplies that depend on global supply chains. The acquisition of personal protective equipment (PPE) in the immediate aftermath of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak (COVID-19) proved challenging not only due to threats of contractor deception but also due to disruptions in contractor supply chains. This research analyzes primary interview data with contracting officials involved in purchasing PPE in the early stages of the COVID-19 crisis. The results indicate the ways that contractor relationships were perceived useful in anticipating risks surrounding a contractor’s behavior (behavioral uncertainties), but insufficient in anticipating disruptions that can result from a contractor’s supply chains (environmental uncertainties). Contractor relations were perceived to help in predicting industry disruptions, but such relations were likely to be formed alongside transactional and short-term contract designs—and likely to require comparison with other data sources. The results indicate that improving the reliability of critical supply acquisition for future crises is likely to depend on developing expertise in supply chain analysis, especially as the U.S. government increasingly relies on global supply chains in critical supply acquisition.