Automation Risk, Social Policy Preferences, and Political Participation

How does automation affect the politics of the welfare state? People at risk of their human labor being automated may react by claiming social protection (passive social policy), upskilling/commodification (active social policy), or both. In this brief contribution, we make use of novel survey data on perceived automation risk and social policy preferences from eight West European countries to estimate the size and preferences of the group of voters who feel threatened by automation. We find that, across countries, only a minority of voters feels imminently threatened by automation. Social policy preferences of at-risk voters are highly consistent: they support and prioritize passive unemployment protection measures, while being less supportive of activation, education, and labor market reintegration policies. In other words: progressive automation increases the support base for consumption-oriented welfare policies, thereby narrowing the support base for human capital-oriented policies that experts tend to recommend in response to automation.