Sequential Optimization and Reliability Assessment Method for Efficient Probabilistic Design

Probabilistic optimization design offers tools for making reliable decisions with the consideration of uncertainty associated with design variables/parameters and simulation models. In a probabilistic design, such as reliability-based design and robust design, the design feasibility is formulated probabilistically such that the probability of the constraint satisfaction (reliability) exceeds the desired limit. The reliability assessment for probabilistic constraints often involves an iterative procedure; therefore, two loops are involved in a probabilistic optimization. Due to the double-loop procedure, the computational demand is extremely high. To improve the efficiency of a probabilistic design, a novel method – sequential optimization and reliability assessment (SORA) is developed in this paper. The SORA method employs a single-loop strategy where a serial of cycles of optimization and reliability assessment is employed. In each cycle optimization and reliability assessment are decoupled from each other; no reliability assessment is required within optimization and the reliability assessment is only conducted after the optimization. The key concept of the proposed method is to shift the boundaries of violated deterministic constraints (with low reliability) to the feasible direction based on the reliability information obtained in the previous cycle. Hence the design is quickly improved from cycle to cycle and the computational efficiency is improved significantly. Two engineering applications, the reliability-based design for vehicle crashworthiness of side impact and the integrated reliability and robust design of a speed reducer, are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SORA method.