The EPSE Model: A Multidimensional Approach to Evaluating and Predicting Food Systems

This paper presents the EPSE model for evaluating and forecasting the performance of national food systems across four dimensions: Efficiency, Profitability, Sustainability, and Equity. By integrating Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for ranking and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction, and K-means clustering for grouping countries based on their food system characteristics, the model analyzes the performance of national food systems across various environmental, economic, and health-related indicators, assessing the relative strengths and weaknesses across different dimensions. The forecasting module employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) trend extrapolation and the proposed dynamic TOPSIS ranking method to predict future trends and relative performance. The results reveal significant improvements in China's food system, while the United States shows stability across dimensions. This study offers insights for policymakers to enhance food system resilience, sustainability, and equity.