Investigation and Future Trend Prediction of Disease Burden of Elderly Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Globally and in China from 1990 to 2021

Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among the elderly has become a significant public health problem both globally and in China, affecting population health. It is extremely urgent to clarify the related disease burden. Objective To assess the disease burden of T2DM among the elderly population globally and in China from 1990 to 2021, project future trends, and offer insights to inform public health and medical decision-makings. Methods Data on incidence and mortality burdens of individuals aged 60 years and above with T2DM in China and around the world were extracted from the global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were estimated based on the GBD 2021 standard population. Joinpoint regression was utilized to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for assessing disease burden trends. Subgroup analyses were performed based on age and sex, and decomposition analysis was performed to examine how aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes impacted disease burden. Bayesian models were employed to forecast prevalence and mortality between 2022 and 2035. Results In 2021, the global incidence of T2DM stood at 6 047 049, while in China, it reached 800 764, representing increases of 178.68% and 220.28%, respectively, compared to the incidence in 1990. Over the period from 1990 to 2021, the global age-standardized incidence rate exhibited a significant overall upward trend (AAPC=1.21%, P<0.001), whereas the trend in China was not statistically significant (AAPC=0.29%, P=0.189). The number of deaths among elderly T2DM patients in 2021 in the global and Chinese populations was 1 304 150 and 149 972, respectively, marking increases of 164.68% and 197.98% compared to the number of deaths in 1990. Throughout the same period, the global age-standardized mortality rate displayed a consistent upward trend (AAPC=0.32%, P<0.001), while the trend in China remained relatively stable (AAPC=0.01%, P=0.922). Notably, the number of incidence and mortality for female in 1990 and 2021, globally and in China, exceeded those of males. Meanwhile, the 60-64 age group had the highest proportion of incidences in 2021, while the 70-74 age group had the highest proportion of deaths. Population growth emerged as the primary influencer driving the rise in incidence and mortality in elderly T2DM patients in both global and Chinese populations, as revealed by decomposition analysis. The projection indicates a continued increase in the incidence and mortality of elderly T2DM patients worldwide and in China from 2022 to 2035. Conclusion The persistent heavy burden of incidence and mortality among elderly individuals with T2DM in both global and Chinese populations necessitates urgent reinforcement and formulation of more effective public health policies and clinical prevention and control strategies to alleviate the fundamental burden associated with this demographic.