Resilience Assessment of the Crude Oil Supply System under Import Disruption

Based on provincial⁃level administrative units, this study integrates key parameters such as regional consumption intensity, reserve capacity, and pipeline network connectivity to construct a regional crude oil supply model that encompasses the entire three⁃tier structure of "reserves⁃pipeline network⁃refining". The model simulates the supply⁃demand satisfaction rate of the system relying solely on domestic crude oil reserves under a complete import disruption scenario, covering the entire process of "resistance⁃exposure⁃recovery⁃collapse". Based on the simulation results, "supply⁃demand satisfaction rate⁃time" performance curves are generated, from which dynamic resilience indicators⁃including exposure duration, recovery speed, and minimum performance level⁃are extracted. Comparative analysis of the performance curves reveals significant provincial disparities in system resilience, manifesting as five distinct response patterns: stable operation, pulse recovery, exposure recovery, early stability followed by collapse, and short⁃term recovery followed by collapse. System resilience is primarily driven by the synergy between total consumption and reserve capacity, while the pipeline network plays a critical role in regulating crude oil redistribution during disruption events. The regional crude oil supply model effectively captures the dynamic evolution of system functionality under complete import disruption, overcoming the limitations of traditional static indicator⁃based assessments. The findings highlight pronounced regional disparities in China's crude oil supply system and provide actionable guidance for designing differentiated emergency response mechanisms, optimizing reserve deployment, and enhancing pipeline network structures, thereby improving national crude oil security.