Prediction of Chinese Automobile Growing Trend Considering Vehicle Adaptability based on Cui–Lawson Model

The rapid growth of fossil fuels and the aggravation of emission pollution can be improved by the green and diversified energy structure of road transport vehicles. In this article, Cui–Lawson model is first introduced to analyse the change trend of pure electric vehicle, hybrid electric vehicle, gas–fuel vehicle, fuel cell vehicle, biofuel vehicle and traditional vehicle in the next 50 years. Considering the climate, environment and economic development of each region, the future ownership of the above six models was studied by region. Moreover, the climate and topography affect the developing trend strongly. The ownership of traditional automobile is more than other kinds of vehicles until 35 and 40 years in Xibei and Dongbei regions for the cold temperature.