Technology spillover and energy rebound of carbon neutrality in eight regions of China: Theory, empirical analysis and enlightenment

If the technology spillover in the carbon neutrality is ignored, the energy rebound effect will be measured in a seriously biased way, which is misleading the policy design and institutional arrangement for the energy transition & energy security. Hence at the regional level, there are two key issues need to be addressed: Will the energy transformation driven by carbon neutrality exacerbate the effect of such an "energy rebound"? How to correctly identify this "energy rebound" and scientifically analyze the externalities of technological innovation in the carbon neutrality process based on regional "technology spillovers"? Based on the logical structure and normative analysis on studying the relationship between energy rebound and technology spillover in terms of carbon neutrality, tentatively the production function is now being well reconstructed and optimized from multiple perspectives which include the production factors, the efficiency internalization, as well as the institutional performance. In our improved production function, the energy efficiency is internalized as an important factor, and the comprehensive performance (as the dependent variable) is composed of both the expected output and the unexpected output. The improved calculation model is explored for measuring the energy rebound, whilst the impact factor assessment model is built too. Then a dynamic comparative analysis of the energy rebound trend for both China and its eight comprehensive economic regions is conducted by using the panel data from 2007 to 2022. The results show that: (1) In the specific context of carbon neutrality, the regional short- and long-term energy rebound considering the technology spillovers is proven as a "Backfire Effect" rather than a "Full Rebound Effect" or a "Partial Rebound Effect". (2) The energy-saving and consumption-reducing effects of the technological innovations oriented by carbon neutrality are partially or fully offset by the energy demand growth at the regional level, and the sensitivity of energy rebound to technological spillovers varies significantly across regions, increasing the pressure on the local energy security and energy transformation. (3) Compared to the positive influences, those negative influences, such as industrial structure, decarbonization, carbon performance pressure and/or labor force base, are the effective tools to reduce the long-term energy consumption pressure on the energy transition & energy security oriented by carbon neutrality, and the environmental governance can partly release the transformation pressure on the energy consumption side. Thus, policy recommendations are proposed.