Assessment of the Resilience of the Power System Operating Under Systematic Terrorist Attacks

Power system resilience, defined as its readiness to fulfill society’s electricity needs, is analyzed by examining differing approaches to its assessment in peaceful and wartime conditions. The consequences of systematic missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s power system in 2024 are assessed, and the destroyed facilities are categorized by the extent of their damage. Restoration efforts are characterized by the duration of repair works. The characteristics of power facility destruction and the duration of repair work are incorporated into an equation modeling the dynamics of generating units available for use in the current period. To assess the resilience of Ukraine’s power system, a cluster model for load modes of power facilities was applied. In this model, similar power facilities were grouped into clusters, and instead of traditional binary variables, integer variables were used to describe discrete states of startup, loading, and shutdown. The presented modeling results demonstrate the adequacy of the cluster model of Ukraine’s power system when compared to actual data obtained from open publications. Key challenges in assessing the resilience of power systems functioning under systematic large-scale attacks are outlined, including anticipated attack strategies—their periodicity, scale, and targeting—dynamics of air defense system effectiveness in protecting power facilities, scheduled commissioning of protective structures with varying levels of protection, dynamics of the effectiveness of backup mechanisms, and the sufficiency of resources for repair work. The proposed cluster model is capable of addressing these pressing challenges.