Directions of Green Transition Strategy in Global Value Chains

The article examines the transformation of the European Union's energy supply chains in the context of russia's full-scale war against Ukraine and sanctions pressure on the russian energy sector, which have caused a reorientation from the pipeline model to imports of liquefied natural gas and, at the same time, have increased the importance of renewable energy as the basis for decarbonization and reducing import dependence. The aim of the study is to provide a scientific and methodological substantiation of the interrelationships between geopolitical shocks, climate policy, and the structural restructuring of global value chains in renewable energy from the perspective of simultaneously ensuring energy security, competitiveness, and climate neutrality. It is substantiated that the substitution of traditional liquefied natural gas supplies from distant markets is accompanied by increased transaction costs, logistical risks, and infrastructural constraints, which raise the “cost” of energy security and highlight the need to develop a more autonomous architecture of energy provision. Based on a generalization of contemporary approaches to the analysis of Global Value Chains and the “green transition,” the determinants of the revision of energy value chains after 2022 are systematized. The key vulnerabilities of renewable energy supply chains are identified, including the concentration of component and material production in a limited number of countries, dependence on critical minerals, protectionism and trade barriers, technological intermittency of generation, and the lack of long-term storage capacity. It has been proven that the “green transition” shifts the center of systemic risks from the fuel market to the markets of technologies, raw materials, network infrastructure, and institutional regulation (including carbon adjustment mechanisms, sustainable financing standards, and corporate reporting), forming new requirements for supply chain sustainability management. The policy of managed diversification of renewable energy sources supply chains, investment in networks and storage technology portfolios, as well as strengthening the measurability of environmental results to minimize greenwashing risks, is justified.