The evolution of China's youth sport policies—a systematic analysis based on national policy texts 2013–2023

Youth sports constitute a significant global policy concern, with governments commonly employing policy interventions to guide their development. Understanding how national priorities within youth sport evolve over time is essential for appreciating the broader trajectory of youth development governance. Drawing on incrementalism theory, this study employs bibliometric analysis, content analysis, and social network analysis to examine the evolution of policy priorities across 105 youth sports policies issued by the Chinese central government between 2013 and 2023. The findings indicate that the focus of China's youth sports policies has undergone a phased evolution: from cultivating competitive sports talents (18th NCCPC period 2012-2016), to integrating sports with education (19th NCCPC period 2017-2021), and subsequently to establishing a health-first principle (20th NCCPC period 2022-present). This progression closely aligns with the country's major political cycles and Five-Year Plans. The study further reveals that, how seemingly marginal early interventions can serve as institutional anchors for subsequent reform, while also identifying coordination challenges between the sports and education systems due to policy ambiguity. The conclusions drawn here may therefore be most applicable to contexts characterised by strong central coordination capacity and developmental orientations toward youth wellbeing.