How do specialty agricultural industries in poverty-alleviated areas achieve sustainable value chain upgrading? An empirical test from the perspective of agricultural new-quality productive forces

Introduction Against the background of consolidating poverty-alleviation achievements and advancing sustainable rural revitalisation, improving value creation, processing extension, market circulation, supporting services, and resilience has become an important issue for specialty agricultural industries in poverty-alleviated areas. Methods Using a county-level panel of poverty-alleviated counties from 2000 to 2023, this study constructed indices of agricultural new-quality productive forces (AQPF) and specialty agricultural value chain upgrading and examined the relationship between AQPF and sustainable specialty agricultural value chain upgrading. Results The results show that AQPF is significantly associated with the transformation of specialty agricultural industries from single-stage production toward processing extension, circulation support, and value creation. This association is stronger in counties covered by the “One Village, One Product” demonstration program, suggesting a policy-reinforcement effect of platform-based support. Component-level evidence suggests that AQPF is more strongly associated with value-added capacity, processing extension, and market circulation than with all value chain components equally. The SLX-based spatial extension analysis further suggests regional interdependence, indicating that AQPF conditions in spatially connected counties are also positively associated with local value chain upgrading. Discussion These findings offer policy implications for strengthening AQPF, improving sustainable value chain support systems, optimising platform-based policy instruments, and promoting cross-county collaboration for inclusive rural development.