Can Agricultural Insurance Policy Adjustments Promote a ‘Grain-Oriented’ Planting Structure?: Measurement Based on the Expansion of the High-Level Agricultural Insurance in China

Ensuring national food security is a perennial topic, and securing the grain planting area is an essential solution. Cost savings at scale from agricultural insurance policy adjustments could be a powerful incentive for grain production. In this study, 527 data sets from 31 provinces in China from 2006 to 2022 were used as the sample, and the author applied a multi-stage DID model to measure the effects of agricultural insurance policy adjustments on the grain planting area and planting structure, as well as the influence mechanisms behind them. The results can be summarized as follows: Firstly, agricultural insurance policy adjustments can make a significant contribution to increasing the grain planting area, with some positive impact on the ‘grain-oriented’ planting structure. Secondly, agricultural insurance policy adjustments can significantly increase the grain planting area by increasing the application of agricultural machinery, but this mechanism does not affect the ‘grain orientation’ planting structure. Thirdly, agricultural insurance policy adjustments can have a significant positive impact on the grain planting area and ‘grain—oriented’ planting structure in both high- and low-risk areas, with low-risk areas being more affected than high-risk areas.