The Influence of New Quality Productive Forces on High-Quality Agricultural Development in China: Mechanisms and Empirical Testing

Advancing the construction and application of new quality productive forces is an essential prerequisite for achieving high-quality agricultural development and expediting the establishment of agricultural powerhouses. This study aims to elucidate the internal mechanisms through which new quality productivity contributes to high-quality agricultural development and to explore practical pathways for enhancing agricultural quality through its promotion. Utilizing panel data spanning 2012 to 2021 from 30 provinces and municipalities in mainland China, the entropy method is employed to gauge levels of new quality productivity and high-quality agricultural development. Additionally, employing research methodologies including SYS-GMM and threshold effect models, this study empirically investigates how the advancement of new quality productivity influences high-quality agricultural development. Our research reveals the following key findings: (1) The development of new quality productive forces significantly enhances high-quality agricultural development, exhibiting a heterogeneous distribution pattern favoring the “eastern region > western region > central region” and “northern region > southern region”. (2) New quality productive forces can bolster the level of high-quality agricultural development by fostering innovation, coordination, openness, and shared development within its subsystems. However, they may impede progress by inhibiting improvements in green development within the subsystems. (3) The results of the threshold effect test demonstrate that the promotion effect of the development of new quality productive forces on high-quality agricultural development escalates with the level of high-quality agricultural development. Specifically, as the level of high-quality agricultural development exceeds the first threshold value of 0.1502, the promotion effect becomes significant; crossing the second threshold value of 0.2010 further amplifies this effect. This paper’s primary marginal contribution involves empirically analyzing the potential nonlinear effects of advancing new quality productivity in enhancing the level of high-quality agricultural development. This enriches empirical research on how new quality productivity fosters the development of high-quality agriculture.