How Do Agricultural New Quality Productive Forces Promote High-Quality Agricultural Development? Evidence from the Tuojiang River Basin, China

Cultivating and strengthening agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPF) has become a key pathway for driving high-quality agricultural development (HQAD), ensuring food security, and advancing agricultural modernization. To investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and underlying mechanisms linking ANQPF and HQAD in the Tuojiang River Basin, this study employs panel data from 37 counties in the Tuojiang River Basin over the period 2011–2020. The entropy method and the DEA-BCC model are used to measure the levels of ANQPF and HQAD, while the fixed effects model, the mediating effect model, and the spatial econometric model are applied to examine the mechanisms through which ANQPF affect HQAD. The findings indicate the following: (1) The level of ANQPF is relatively low but has shown continuous growth, whereas the level of HQAD is relatively high but exhibits considerable fluctuation. Moreover, both dimensions display uneven development across regions. (2) ANQPF significantly promote HQAD at the 1% level, with agricultural technology development and green development serving as mediating mechanisms. However, a suppression effect is identified in agricultural technology development, and ANQPF exhibit a short-term inhibitory effect on agricultural green development. (3) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the promoting effect of ANQPF is statistically significant in upstream and downstream regions but is not yet significant in the midstream region. (4) Further analysis reveals that ANQPF have a significant positive effect on HQAD within local regions. However, the spatial spillover effect across regions has not been fully realized. Therefore, to better leverage ANQPF in advancing HQAD, efforts should focus on addressing the challenges of agricultural technology extension and implementation, and on fostering new agricultural business entities. A special subsidy mechanism should be established with green transition as the guiding orientation to alleviate ecological protection pressure in the early stages of agricultural development. With regional coordination as the overarching goal, differentiated support policies should be implemented to promote overall basin development.