Spatial Variation of Key Bioclimatic Factors in the Natural Range of Picea koraiensis and Implications for Its Conservation

Picea koraiensis (Korean spruce) is a boreal tree species of considerable ecological and economic importance in Northeast Asia, particularly within its natural range in China, Russia and the Korean Peninsula. This study investigated spatial variation in key bioclimatic factors and their relationships with terrain gradients to clarify how these variables influence the species’ distribution. Using high-resolution climate data and species-occurrence records, we examined the effects of elevation, slope and aspect on temperature and precipitation patterns across the species’ range. Precipitation-related variables, including bio13, bio14 and bio15, were closely associated with habitat suitability, whereas elevation and slope affected local temperature stability and moisture availability. Higher elevations and steeper slopes generally provided cooler, wetter conditions favorable for P. koraiensis. Climate modelling predicts that suitable habitats will shift northwards and to higher elevations in response to climate change and are likely to contract under high-emission scenarios. Identifying climate refugia and areas with stable bioclimatic conditions provides important insights for conservation prioritization. This study highlights the need for targeted conservation strategies, including protecting identified climate refugia, maintaining or restoring connectivity corridors between suitable habitats, and carefully assessing assisted migration to climatically favorable northern and higher-elevation areas, to support the long-term viability of the species under rapid climate change.