Study on the Correlations Between Spatial Morphology Parameters and Solar Potential of Old Communities in Cold Regions with a Case Study of Jinan City, Shandong Province

Currently, urban development has entered the stage of renewal and transformation. Energy transition is an important trend for sustainable urban development, and the assessment of solar energy potential in old residential areas in cold regions is of great significance. This study selects 47 old residential communities in Jinan, a cold region of China, as case samples. Using clustering algorithms based on spatial form characteristic parameters, the study divides the samples into five categories. The study then uses the Ladybug tool to simulate the distribution and total solar energy utilization potential of buildings in the five categories and analyzes the correlation between eight spatial form parameters and building solar energy potential. A linear regression model is established, and strategies for the application of BIPV in community buildings are proposed. The study finds that factors such as plot ratio, building density, open space ratio, volume-to-surface ratio, and form coefficient have a significant impact on the solar energy potential of residential communities; the p-values are −0.785, −0.783, 0.783, −0.761, and 0.724, respectively. Among these, building density (BD) is the most crucial factor affecting the solar energy potential of building facades. Increasing by one unit can reduce the solar energy utilization potential by 28.00 kWh/m2/y. At the same time, installing photovoltaic panels on old residential buildings in cold regions can reduce building carbon emissions by approximately 48%. The research findings not only provide methodological references for photovoltaic technology application at varying neighborhood scales in urban settings but also offer specific guidance for low-carbon retrofitting of aging urban communities, thereby facilitating progress in urban carbon emission reduction.