Does Fossil Energy Spatial Mismatch Hurt Economic Growth? Evidence from China and the Moderating Role of New Energy Development

Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2000 to 2022, this paper constructs a measurement model of the spatial misallocation of fossil energy and investigates its impact on regional economic development, its transmission mechanism, as well as the moderating effect of new energy development. The results show that: (1) Spatial misallocation of fossil energy significantly hinders economic development, and this conclusion is robust under a variety of robustness checks; (2) The inhibitory effect of fossil energy spatial misallocation on economic development is most pronounced in the central region, regions with insufficient energy allocation, and in the context of coal misallocation; (3) New energy development not only exerts a positive driving effect on economic development, but also weakens the negative impact of fossil energy misallocation; after crossing a critical threshold, its effect shifts from inhibition to promotion; (4) Fixed-asset investment, industrial structure, and energy efficiency play negative mediating roles. The negative indirect effects of these three variables superimpose on the negative direct effect of fossil energy spatial misallocation, further strengthening the impediment to economic development. This study provides a basis for optimizing fossil energy allocation and promoting the coordinated development of traditional and new energy sources.