Mitigating Systemic Risks in the Global Energy Transition: Analyzing Techno-Ecological and Socio-Economic Interfaces to Redefine Energy Policy in the Age of Polycrisis

This paper presents a systemic analysis of the global energy transition, framing it as the central thermodynamic and economic driver of the modern polycrisis. The primary research objective is to demonstrate how current decarbonization strategies, lacking a holistic view, inadvertently trigger nonlinear amplifying feedback loops that exacerbate geopolitical and market volatility. Methodologically, the research introduces a systemic control dashboard, operationalizing the anthropological concept of contact zones into measurable techno-ecological and socio-economic interfaces. This framework is preferable to existing socio-technical approaches because it operationally couples rigid physical limits (e.g., thermodynamics) with volatile socio-behavioral friction, eliminating the blind spots of siloed analyses. The main contribution of this study lies in its systemic validation: it proves that the energy transition operates as the master control node of the polycrisis and successfully identifies eight high-leverage control levers (comprising sixteen Key Performance Indicators) that govern the friction between physical boundaries and societal acceptance. Regarding policy implications, the findings demonstrate that securing a Social License to Operate (SLO) requires actively managing these specific interface tensions—such as balancing renewable deployment against baseload inertia—rather than relying on isolated cost–benefit metrics. Ultimately, this approach equips energy planners with a robust methodology to minimize systemic risk and guide the transition toward a resilient, low-entropy steady state.