Climatic Warming Caused a Transition in Tree Growth Sensitivity from Temperature to Moisture Conditions: Evidence from Multi-Species Tree-Ring Data in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Traditionally, investigations into the climatic response of various tree species have spanned different regions. However, dendrochronological studies within a single region, characterized by minor climatic differences, have received comparatively less attention. Therefore, this study collected 230 tree cores from four prevalent conifer species (P. yunnanensis, A. forrestii, P. likiangensis, and T. dumosa) in the Lugu Lake Wetland Nature Reserve of southwestern China, a region undergoing climate warming and drying. This study employed dendrochronological methods to investigate tree growth–climate static responses, individual tree responses to climate, and dynamic tree–climate interactions. Our findings revealed that as the trend of warming and drying persists, tree growth exhibits an initial increase followed by a subsequent decrease. Dynamic response analyses, along with standardized assessments, indicate that in the early stages of warming, tree growth benefits from elevated temperatures. However, in the later stages of warming, the combined effects of warming and drying become more pronounced. During this phase, the facilitating impact of temperature diminishes, while the controlling influence of moisture conditions intensifies. Looking ahead, with the ongoing intensification of warming and drying, tree growth in the region is anticipated to become increasingly reliant on the water supply. This shift may lead to the decline or mortality of tree species intolerant to drought, such as T. dumosa.