The Impact of Land Transfer-In on Crop Planting Structure and Its Heterogeneity among Farmers: Evidence from China

The crop planting structure in the world has shown a trend of “non-grain”, which will shake the foundations of global food security in the long run. As a basic and important production factor, changes in land will have an impact on farmers’ crop planting decisions. In this paper, we take China, a country that is experiencing land transfer, “non-grain” production, and farmer differentiation, as the research area, use the household survey data at the national level, and adopt the methods of Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and multiple regression models to reveal the impact of land transfer-in on the crop planting structure and its heterogeneity among farmers. The results showed that land transfer-in can drive the crop planting structure to tend to be “non-grain” in China. The research conclusion was still valid after the robustness tests of expanding the sample size, increasing the number of control variables, and introducing endogenous problem management. The heterogeneity analysis indicated that the negative impact of land transfer-in on the planting of grain crops mainly exists for large-scale farmers and farmers with agriculture as the main source of income. Based on these findings, the Chinese government should formulate targeted policies to prevent the “non-grain” tendency of crop planting structure after land transfer-in.