A Network-Cascade Framework for Short-Run Production Failure Under Maritime-Energy Chokepoint Disruption

Abrupt maritime-energy disruption can generate system-wide production losses before firms and policymakers can adjust. Existing assessments usually emphasize direct exposure or long-run equilibrium responses, which makes them less suitable for short-run risk assessment in energy-dependent production systems. We develop a threshold-cascade framework that combines dual-track dependence topology, edge-level inventories, smooth operability bands, and a separate price-validation step to identify the blockade intensity at which a localized chokepoint shock becomes systemic production loss. The framework is evaluated against the March 2021 Suez blockage and the 2022 Russia–Ukraine producer-price episode, and then applied to a 2026 Strait of Hormuz stress scenario using the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables, 2025 edition, with the 2022 benchmark year. Under the baseline 150-day horizon, terminal loss first reaches 50% at about 32% blockade intensity, with a broader calibrated threshold band of 32–46%. Losses spread beyond the point of origin and become concentrated in East and Southeast Asian manufacturing supply chains and in downstream consumer markets after inventories at connected hubs are depleted. Policy experiments show that single-channel interventions shift the threshold only modestly, whereas an integrated package that relaxes logistics, inventories, and upstream scarcity moves the threshold to about 46% in this calibration. The analysis targets the weeks-to-months interval before substitution, contract renegotiation, and broader market adjustments dominate. Within that interval, the model identifies when buffers fail, how production losses spread, and which intervention packages delay systemic disruption.