Internal Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of Digital Economy’s Impact on Agricultural New Quality Productive Forces: Evidence from China

Agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs) signify the progressive trajectory of modern agriculture. However, their development encounters significant challenges in many nations. The digital economy, characterized by its strong innovative capacity, offers continuous impetus for advancing agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs). Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2014–2023), this study employs a two-way fixed-effects model, mediation and threshold effect analyses, and a spatial Durbin model to comprehensively assess the influence of the digital economy (DE) on agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs). The findings reveal that (1) the digital economy (DE) significantly enhances the advancement of agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs); (2) while its positive effect is pronounced in eastern, central, and western China, the impact is weaker in the northeastern region; (3) rural financial development (RFD) acts as a mediator in the relationship between digital economy (DE) growth and agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs); (4) the digital economy (DE)’s contribution to agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs) demonstrates non-linear trends; and (5) spatially, while the digital economy (DE) boosts the local agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs), it exerts a negative spillover effect on neighboring areas. This research offers fresh empirical insights into the determinants of agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQPFs) and suggests policy measures to support agricultural modernization.