Impact of Agricultural New-Quality Productivity Forces on Agricultural Resilience and Environmental Sustainability in China: From the Perspective of Carbon Emissions

Background: Reducing agricultural carbon emissions can enhance agricultural resilience and promote sustainable agricultural development. Although prior research has examined how agricultural new-quality productive forces (ANQP) reshape factor allocation, technology adoption, and production efficiency, their implications for agricultural carbon emissions remain insufficiently studied. Objective: To quantify the impact of ANQP on agricultural carbon emissions, assess regional heterogeneity across the east, central, and west, between grain and non-grain areas, between the Yangtze River Economic Belt and other regions, and across different levels of fiscal support, and to identify an efficiency-based transmission mechanism. Materials and Methods: A panel of 30 Chinese provinces for 2012–2022 is analyzed using province and year fixed effects. Results: ANPQ significantly reduce agricultural carbon emissions. The effect is stronger in western provinces, in non-grain areas, within the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and where fiscal support is higher, and weaker in eastern and low-support regions. Trade-offs between yield stabilization and emission reduction emerge in the central region and in major grain-producing areas. Mechanism results indicate that ANQP lowers emissions primarily by improving agricultural production efficiency measured by total factor productivity.