Driving Digital Adoption in Rural Tajikistan: An Extended Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) Analysis of Institutional and Psychological Barriers

The digital transformation of agriculture is a critical pathway for promoting sustainable rural livelihoods in transition economies. This study examines the determinants of mobile agricultural application adoption among 327 smallholder farmers in Tajikistan, integrating the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) with New Institutional Economics (NIE). We develop a formative Institutional Support Index (ISI) comprising cooperative membership, extension access, and regulatory familiarity. Using binary logistic regression and multi-model robustness checks (probit, LPM, IV-probit), we identify three core findings. First, perceived usefulness (PU) is the dominant positive driver (AME = +12.2 pp; p < 0.001). Second, perceived risk (PR) constitutes a significant psychological barrier (AME = −7.6 pp; p < 0.01), while perceived trust (PT) partially offsets this deterrent effect (AME = +6.4 pp; p < 0.01). Third, we document a “land ownership puzzle,” where land ownership exerts a robust negative conditional effect on adoption (AME = −14.2 pp; p < 0.01). This finding suggests a property-rights-based “conservatism bias” unique to transition contexts, where asset-protection motives increase the adoption threshold for landowners compared to tenants. Exploratory analysis indicates a tentative “Sensitization Effect,” in which institutional support may increase risk awareness in the absence of financial risk-sharing mechanisms. These results broaden the applicability of the TAM to post-Soviet transition environments and suggest that digital extension initiatives must incorporate risk-management tools to effectively assist smallholder farmers.