Measurement of the Loss of Green Total Factor Productivity in Chinese Industry Caused by Energy Misallocation: A Temporal and Spatial Effect Based on Resource and Policy Constraints

China has achieved rapid industrial development, but at the same time, the problems of tightening energy supply and environmental degradation have become increasingly prominent. Improving green total factor productivity (GTFP) has become a central task in China’s industrial transformation. Using industrial input–output data for 30 Chinese provinces from 2008 to 2020, this paper innovatively extends the Hsieh–Klenow framework by introducing land, energy and environmental pollution as input factors, and combines it with a spatial Durbin model to quantify industrial GTFP losses caused by energy misallocation and factor price distortions and to examine their spatial spillover effects. The results show that resource misallocation has generated significant inter-provincial industrial GTFP losses, with loss rates ranging from 13.96% to 32.57%, among which energy misallocation is the most important source. By comparing effective GTFP under a scenario without energy distortions with the observed GTFP, it can be found that eliminating energy misallocation would increase the average level of China’s inter-provincial industrial GTFP by about 40% during the sample period. Spatially, GTFP losses exhibit significant clustering, mainly concentrated in the northwest region, particularly in the Yellow River Basin, while lower losses are observed in the Yangtze River Basin and the southeastern coastal regions. In addition, industrial GTFP losses show significant spatial correlation and spillover effects. Environmental regulation can reduce local GTFP losses, but it may increase losses in neighboring regions through mechanisms such as industrial relocation or pollution spillovers. To support the sustainable development of China’s industry, these findings indicate the need for more efficient energy allocation, faster technological upgrading and talent investment, as well as stricter and more targeted environmental regulation.