Spatiotemporal Evolution of Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions and Regional Low-Carbon Sustainable Development in China

Against the backdrop of optimizing national energy mix and advancing industrial low-carbon transformation to achieve sustainable socioeconomic development, this study adopts prefecture-level panel data covering 2005–2020 to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution law of carbon emissions generated by urban energy consumption. We systematically characterize emission disparities from three dimensions: total carbon output, per capita carbon emissions, and carbon emission intensity, and further adopt regression analysis to quantitatively identify core socioeconomic and industrial drivers behind energy-related carbon flows. The results indicate that China’s total urban energy carbon emissions kept rising over the research window with decelerating growth momentum. Driven by cross-regional industrial transfer and uneven energy resource endowments, high-emission zones gradually spread from eastern coastal agglomerations to northern and western inland territories, forming a stable spatial layout of high emissions in the east and north, and low emissions in the west and south. Per capita carbon emissions present striking regional differentiation: northwest resource-abundant provinces become concentrated high-value clusters, while populous southeast regions maintain relatively low levels, with inter-regional per capita emission gaps continuously widening. Nationwide carbon emission intensity maintained a persistent downward trend; high-intensity zones shrank markedly while low-carbon areas expanded continuously, and inter-regional efficiency gradients gradually converged, reflecting tangible achievements in nationwide energy conservation and low-carbon industrial transition. Overall, the gravity center of energy carbon emissions shifted northwestward, with Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Ningxia evolving into major high-emission hotspots relying on fossil energy exploitation and heavy industrial layout. Statistical regression associations suggest that urban construction land expansion, economic expansion, foreign capital agglomeration, and industrial energy carbon outputs are positively correlated with urban carbon emissions; by contrast, commercial housing scale and domestic enterprise development present significant negative correlational links with emission levels. The differentiated spatiotemporal carbon landscape arises from the joint interplay of regional resource endowment, coal-dominated energy structure, industrial layout restructuring, and tiered low-carbon policy implementation, demonstrating China’s overall shift from high-carbon extensive industrial growth toward energy-efficient, low-carbon intensive sustainable development. This research delivers empirical evidence for formulating zoned carbon abatement schemes, optimizing regional energy allocation and industrial layouts, and advancing long-term low-carbon sustainable development to fulfill China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets.