Does the Digital Economy Reshape Crop-Planting Structure? Evidence on Relative Non-Grain Cropping from Chinese Prefecture-Level Cities

Digital transformation is changing agricultural information access, market connectivity, and factor allocation, but its implications for crop-planting structure remain underexamined. Using a prefecture-level panel of 291 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2023, this study investigates whether the digital economy is associated with relative non-grain cropping, measured as the share of non-grain crop sown area in total crop sown area. The results show that a one-standard-deviation increase in the digital economy index is positively associated with relative non-grain cropping. Area decomposition indicates that this relationship reflects selective contraction and factor reallocation rather than unrestricted absolute expansion of non-grain acreage. Moderation and heterogeneity analyses further show that platform-commerce and digital-payment environments strengthen the association, while major grain-producing area status and stronger agricultural resource endowments weaken it. Robustness and endogeneity-mitigation checks support the positive association but also indicate important identification boundaries. The findings contribute to debates on sustainable land-use transition by showing how digitalization can reshape crop allocation under market opportunities, factor constraints, and food-security institutions.