Assessing the Synergistic Cooperation Potential and Influencing Factors for Sustainable Inbound Tourism Development Among Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, and Taiwan Region

The tourism industries of the Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, and the Taiwan region are globally competitive yet diverse, but persistent developmental disparities have hindered robust inbound tourism cooperation. This study assesses the synergistic potential and driving factors of the joint inbound tourism market among the Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Using panel data from 16 source countries (2000–2021), we construct a coupling framework for the inbound tourism relationship circle. We develop an inbound tourism relationship index and employ text analysis alongside ArcGIS Pro3.4.1-based spatiotemporal mapping to reveal the dynamic evolution of coupling coordination. A panel model is then applied to examine six influencing factors: economic, geographic, population, cultural, visa, and institutional. The results indicate that the coupling coordination degree remains generally high, though with stage-specific variations. Population, visa, and institutional factors exert significant positive effects, while economic and geographic factors show significant negative effects—economic because smaller-economy source countries are more likely to treat the four regions as a combined destination, facilitating inter-regional synergy, and geographic because greater distance raises travel costs and reduces visitor flows, thereby weakening coordination. Cultural factors are insignificant. Future efforts should prioritize visa facilitation and institutional building, providing a reference for market promotion, national integration, and sustainable regional cooperation.