District-Level Dengue Early Warning Prediction System in Bangladesh Using Hybrid Explainable AI and Bayesian Deep Learning

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease which is predominantly endemic in tropical and subtropical countries. In Bangladesh, 321,179 dengue cases were reported in 2023, followed by 101,214 cases in 2024, which highlights a severe and ongoing public health challenge. Dengue transmission risks are shaped by climatic variability, rapid urbanization, socio-economic vulnerability, and healthcare strain. But existing dengue surveillance models remain limited in their ability to capture district-level disparities in Bangladesh. This study aimed to develop a district-level dengue early warning system that integrates climatic, socio-demographic, economic, healthcare, and environmental determinants to generate accurate and interpretable predictions. We examined dengue cases across all 64 districts in Bangladesh from 2017 to 2024, integrating Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) case records with climate, socio-demographic, economic, and healthcare indicators. Machine learning and deep learning approaches, including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM), were combined with SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations)-based explainable artificial intelligence. We also used Bayesian spatio-temporal models to capture spatial clustering, temporal dependence, and the lagged transmission effects of dengue. Dengue outbreaks peaked in September 2023, with Dhaka recording 113,233 cases. DENV-4 (Dengue Virus type 4) emerged in 2022, accounting for 27% of infections in 2023. Climate was the strongest predictor of dengue transmission (humidity SHAP = 0.314; minimum temperature SHAP = 0.146; rainfall RR = 1.303). Poverty (SHAP = 0.193) and healthcare capacity (nursing/midwifery density SHAP = 0.073) mostly contributed to dengue prediction. The MLP model achieved the best yearly performance (accuracy = 0.93; ROC-AUC = 0.99), ConvLSTM was the best model in monthly prediction (recall = 0.88; ROC-AUC = 0.81), and Bayesian BYM2_RW2 with lagged effects improved predictive fit (DIC = 3671.055). Our integrated framework delivers transparent, interpretable predictions and district-level early warnings, supporting adaptive dengue outbreak preparedness and resource allocation in Bangladesh.