Strategies and prospects for large-scale crop yield improvement based on yield gap

In the context of the “New Round of the 100-Billion-Jin Grain Production Capacity Enhancement Initiative”, large-scale yield improvement has been identified as a core strategic pathway for ensuring national food security in China. Although national grain production has remained high and stable in recent years, further yield increases through cropland expansion are increasingly constrained by limited water and soil resources and growing environmental pressures. Addressing the key scientific questions of “whether major food crops still have room for yield improvement, how large this potential is, and how it can be realized”, research on yield potential and yield gaps provide an essential theoretical and methodological foundation to quantify production potential, identify limiting factors, and design yield-enhancement strategies. This paper systematically reviews recent advances in yield potential assessment and yield gap analysis, revealing the magnitude of untapped yield potential and the dominant constraints across different crops and regions. Based on these insights, differentiated technical pathways for large-scale yield improvement are proposed. In regions with large yield gaps, priority should be given to optimizing crop management practices and resource allocation to accelerate yield gap closure. In contrast, in areas where yield gaps are relatively small, further yield gains rely on breeding innovation, key technological breakthroughs, and cropping system optimization to raise yield ceilings. In addition, this paper analyzes major bottlenecks in the dissemination and application of yield-enhancing technologies, highlighting the persistent disconnect between scientific outputs and on-farm practices that hampers large-scale adoption. Looking ahead, establishing a coordinated and closed-loop framework encompassing yield potential assessment, yield gap diagnosis, technology integration, and on-farm implementation will be critical for translating scientific advances into sustained productivity gains. Through the synergistic advancement of technological innovations and supportive policy and system arrangements, China can continue to enhance its grain production capacity under constraints of limited arable land and environmental resources, thereby strengthening food security and agricultural sustainability.