Food choices and body weight changes: A mathematical model analysis

A short-term stochastic model of minute-by-minute food intake is formulated, incorporating the interaction of appetite, insulinemia, and glycemia in determining the size and frequency of meals. By assuming a person would maintain his or her eating habit over time, we extend the simulation period to several years and explore scenarios based on food choices (high-fiber vs. high-carbohydrate) or appetite suppression. The model coherently predicts increments or decrements in body weight in the long-term when altering appetite in the short-term. Further, the model shows how food type choice, at the same appetite drive and habitual proposed meal size, induces macroscopic changes in body weight over a very few years. The model is innovative in that it connects the minute-by-minute behavior of the individual with long-term changes in metabolic compensation, in insulin sensitivity, in glycemic variability, and eventually in body size, thus helping to interpret the long-term development of Type 2 diabetes mellitus resulting from an unhealthy lifestyle.