Development and validation of a predictive model for patients with post-extubation dysphagia

BACKGROUND: Swallowing disorder is a common clinical symptom that can lead to a series of complications, including aspiration, aspiration pneumonia, and malnutrition. This study aimed to investigate risk factors of post-extubation dysphagia (PED) in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with endotracheal intubation, and to develop a risk-predictive model for PED, which could serve as an assessment tool for the prevention and control of PED. METHODS: ]) and P-value for each variable to predict diagnosis. The screened risk factors were introduced into R software to build a nomogram model. The performance of the model, including discrimination ability, calibration, and clinical benefit, was evaluated by plotting the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration, and decision curves. RESULTS: 0.831-0.983) and good calibration. The decision-curve analysis of this nomogram showed a net benefit of the model. CONCLUSION: A predictive model that incorporates age, pause of sedatives, level of consciousness, ADL score, nasogastric tube, sore throat, and voice disorder may have the potential to predict PED in ICU patients.